Bitcoin's Crucial Juncture: Resilience Amidst Selling Pressure
Bitcoin is currently navigating a critical phase, consolidating above the psychological $100,000 barrier despite intensifying selling pressure from short-term holders. On-chain metrics reveal significant transfers to exchanges, hinting at a market recalibration that could either pave the way for a renewed uptrend or signal a more prolonged correction.
Short-Term Holders Drive Distribution as Inflows Surge
Recent data from CryptoQuant indicates a notable uptick in Bitcoin inflows to Binance, with a 30-day moving average showing approximately 7,500 BTC being transferred daily. This marks the highest inflow rate since the March correction, suggesting active profit-taking and cautious positioning among traders. Top analyst Darkfosto points out that many short-term holders (STHs) who acquired Bitcoin near $112,000 are now selling at a loss, contributing to a "cleansing phase" in the market. This dynamic sees speculative capital exiting while underlying demand remains robust enough to absorb the increased supply, preventing a deeper market breakdown, at least for now.
Weekly Chart Resilience: Key Support Holds
On the technical front, Bitcoin demonstrates resilience, consolidating within a tight range of $102,000 to $107,000. The 50-week moving average continues to act as a strong dynamic support, having withstood multiple tests in recent weeks. This steadfast defense of the $100,000 psychological level reinforces the presence of intact demand. While the macro bias remains bullish, underpinned by the upward trajectory of the 100-week and 200-week moving averages, a lack of significant volume during recent rebounds suggests lingering caution among market participants. A decisive reclaim of the $110,000 region could invalidate short-term bearish sentiment and open the door for a recovery towards the $117,000-$120,000 resistance. Conversely, a weekly close below $100,000 would signal a technical breakdown, potentially leading to a retreat towards the $92,000-$96,000 range.
