Bitcoin's Impending Bottom? Expert Forecasts $38,000-$50,000 Target by Late 2026

A prominent market analyst is sounding the alarm for Bitcoin investors, forecasting a significant price correction that could see the cryptocurrency bottom out between $38,000 and $50,000 within the next year, specifically around October 2026. This bold prediction comes amid a period of considerable uncertainty in the crypto market.

Analyst Predicts Significant Retracement

Crypto market expert Ali Martinez has put forth a bearish outlook for Bitcoin (BTC), suggesting a potential downside of 51% to 63% from its current levels. According to his analysis, Bitcoin could retrace to a price range of $38,000 to $50,000, hitting its market bottom by October 2026. This forecast emerges even as Bitcoin recently achieved notable highs, currently trading approximately 20% below its record peak of $126,000, despite lagging behind traditional assets like US stocks and gold in year-to-date performance. The broader market is currently characterized by investor fear and selling pressure, causing Bitcoin to consolidate just above the $100,000 mark.

Historical Patterns Point to a Cycle Top

Martinez's projection is firmly anchored in a detailed examination of historical Bitcoin market cycles. He notes a consistent pattern in previous cycles, specifically the 2015-2017 and 2018-2021 periods, where precisely 1,064 days elapsed between the bear market bottom and the subsequent bull market peak. The current cycle, which commenced from the November 2022 bottom and led to the recent all-time high of $126,220, is now approaching 1,082 days. This striking recurrence in timing suggests that Bitcoin may have already reached its cyclical apex and is embarking on the early stages of a post-peak retracement. At the time of this analysis, Bitcoin was trading at $103,320, reflecting a 3% decline over a 24-hour period, further highlighting the market's current volatility.