Bitcoin's Bold Resurgence: Unpacking the $106,000 Milestone
Bitcoin has staged a notable comeback, pushing sharply higher in early European trade on Monday, November 10, 2025, briefly reclaiming the significant $106,000 mark after a period of weekend volatility. This upward momentum is not merely coincidental but appears to be driven by a confluence of macroeconomic liquidity signals and pivotal policy developments, capturing the attention of traders and analysts alike.
Key Macroeconomic and Policy Drivers
The crypto market's latest surge can be attributed to three interconnected factors signaling a potential shift in liquidity. Firstly, recent communications from the Federal Reserve, particularly remarks from New York Fed President John Williams, suggest a pivot in balance sheet strategy. With bank reserves reportedly moving from "abundant" to "ample," the Fed may soon need to resume asset purchases – not as a stimulus, but to ensure smooth money market functioning, especially as quantitative tightening (QT) concludes on December 1 with maturing Treasuries being fully reinvested. This hints at an end to the Fed's liquidity draining efforts. Secondly, the looming US government shutdown saga appears to be nearing a resolution. Prediction markets like Polymarket indicate an 87% probability of a resolution between November 12-15. Historically, the conclusion of a government shutdown leads to an increase in Treasury spending. This process funnels cash from the Treasury General Account (TGA) at the Fed back into the banking system, thereby increasing bank reserves. This mechanical linkage – TGA down, reserves up – has consistently correlated with stronger crypto bids, particularly when not counteracted by aggressive QT.
Sustained Liquidity and Bullish Sentiment
Beyond the immediate policy shifts, there's growing chatter around a broader "liquidity impulse." Discussions about permitting 50-year mortgages and potential relief checks, though controversial, fuel the narrative that the era of easy liquidity and asset inflation is far from over. Analysts are keenly observing these developments, with figures like Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments encapsulating the bullish sentiment: "Bullish weekly close. 90% chance US shutdown ends this week (Polymarket). Fed dropping rates 1% over 18 months. Fed confirmed plan to grow balance sheet! Equities Fear & Greed in extreme Fear! Put/Call ratio bullish. Send Bitcoin back up." This perspective is echoed by others, including James Lavish, who highlights the ongoing fiscal angle: "Trump is floating $2K stimmy checks, the FHFA is considering 50-year mortgages, and the US government continues to run $2 trillion deficits. Please tell me again how the era of easy liquidity and asset inflation is ending." The collective sentiment suggests that the underlying macroeconomic backdrop remains highly supportive of risk assets, with Bitcoin positioned as a prime beneficiary of these liquidity injections and policy realignments. At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $106,265, reflecting this renewed confidence.
