Filecoin [FIL] recently experienced a significant price correction after an impressive 56% rally, leaving the market with mixed signals about its immediate future. Despite a swift 14% daily drop, a deeper look reveals contrasting sentiments between on-chain investors and the more optimistic derivatives market.
On-Chain Bearishness and Investor Retreat
On-chain investors have shown a distinct shift towards a bearish outlook, actively divesting their holdings. This sentiment is evident from a sharp decline in Filecoin's Total Value Locked (TVL) and the sale of approximately $5.5 million worth of FIL. Concurrently, the Stablecoin Market Cap on Filecoin surged by over 53% in a week, suggesting that investors are parking their funds in stable assets, anticipating further volatility or a more opportune entry point rather than maintaining long-term bullish positions.
Derivatives Market Bullishness and Price Outlook
In stark contrast to spot market activity, the derivatives market for FIL appears to harbor a bullish bias. Major exchanges like Binance and OKX report Long/Short Ratios well above 1.0, indicating a higher number of active long positions and controlling nearly 45% of FIL's derivatives liquidity. This optimism is further underscored by a positive Open Interest Weighted Funding Rate, which signals a prevailing bullish sentiment among traders with active contracts. Looking ahead, the Liquidation Heatmap suggests a strong support zone near $2.4, which could act as a bounce-back point if bulls manage to absorb selling pressure. Should this support hold, FIL could aim for a rebound towards the $3.6 resistance level, with its next significant move largely dependent on which camp—bulls or bears—ultimately gains control.
