Bitcoin Under Pressure: Long-Term Holder Sell-Offs Meet Lagging Demand
Bitcoin is navigating turbulent waters as its price struggles to solidify its position above the crucial $102,000 threshold. Recent on-chain data paints a cautious picture, indicating that while experienced long-term holders are capitalizing on current prices, the market's capacity to absorb these significant sell-offs is diminishing, potentially signaling a pause in the cryptocurrency's bullish momentum.
Long-Term Holders Cashing In: A Shifting Dynamic
Analysis from CryptoQuant, spearheaded by research head Julio Moreno, reveals a discernible pattern: long-term holders (LTHs) typically take profits as Bitcoin approaches or surpasses previous all-time highs. This behavior, observed during past bull market phases in early and late 2024, usually coincided with robust and expanding demand, enabling Bitcoin to surge to new record prices. However, a significant shift has been noted since October 2025. Despite an increase in LTH selling, as indicated by the 30-day sum of LTH spending, market demand has entered a "red zone," signifying a contraction and a weakened ability to absorb the incoming supply.
Weakening Demand and Spot ETF Outflows Amplify Concerns
The current imbalance between selling pressure and demand suggests that Bitcoin's price growth may be losing steam. Julio Moreno highlights that the critical factor is not merely the volume of LTH sell-offs, but whether underlying demand can keep pace. Strong demand typically leads to healthy consolidation before further price surges, while weak demand can result in prolonged corrections or sideways trading. A key contributor to this softened demand is the recent performance of Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Data from SosoValue shows significant net outflows from US-based Spot Bitcoin ETFs, including a substantial $558.44 million outflow on November 7, marking one of the largest single-day outflows in weeks. If this trend persists without a recovery in demand, Bitcoin's next rally could be postponed, with the cryptocurrency likely consolidating between $101,000 and $103,000 through the remainder of November. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $101,655, down 0.6% in the past 24 hours.
