Summary: When will Bitcoin reach $1 million per coin and a $20 trillion market cap?

Is Bitcoin's Million-Dollar Moonshot Closer Than We Think? The audacious notion of Bitcoin reaching $1 million per coin, once a speculative fantasy, is now anchoring serious financial models and analytical projections. This article explores the compelling drivers pushing Bitcoin toward this staggering valuation and a potential $20 trillion market cap, akin to gold's current standing. A pivotal catalyst is the upcoming post-2028 halving, slated for April 2028. Historically, these supply shocks precede significant price surges, with the next likely parabolic phase projected for mid to late 2029. This timeline resonates across various forecasts, including those from leading AI models like ChatGPT and Grok, which pinpoint dates ranging from late 2029 to 2033 for Bitcoin to cross the seven-figure threshold. Prominent analyses, such as ARK Invest's "Big Ideas 2025" report, lay out a base-case of $710,000 by 2030, with a bull scenario soaring to $1.5 million. These projections underscore that even incremental institutional and sovereign adoption, rather than mass retail participation, could ignite explosive growth. While some models advise a more gradual trajectory, overall, conservative TradFi estimates now average a formidable $917,000 for Bitcoin in the next cycle. Synthesizing these insights, the most plausible window for Bitcoin to hit $1 million appears to be mid-2029 to mid-2030. While macroeconomic headwinds and regulatory shifts remain wildcards, the long-term probability of Bitcoin ever reaching $1 million is estimated at 60%. The journey to a million-dollar Bitcoin is increasingly framed by probabilistic analysis, transforming what was once pure speculation into a calculated, albeit contingent, financial possibility.