Macro Review – Week 46, 2023: Cryptocurrency and Traditional Markets
In Week 46 of 2023, the cryptocurrency market witnessed fluctuations, with Ether (ETH) at 2,019 USDT (⬇️1.5%) and Bitcoin (BTC) at 37,218 USDT (⬆️0.3%). Traditional markets, including NASDAQ and S&P 500, experienced positive gains, while the European Top 600 stocks rose by 2.9%.
Market Performance:
Bitcoin and Ether outperformed equity markets in 2023, with BTC up by ⬆️125% YTD and ETH up by ⬆️69%. In contrast, NASDAQ rose by ⬆️36%, S&P 500 by ⬆️18%, and iShares STOXX EU 600 by ⬆️6%.
Inflation and Monetary Policy:
US headline CPI for October 2023 decreased to 3.20%, surpassing expectations. Core CPI dropped to 4.0% p.a., potentially delaying the December Fed hike. The Fed of Cleveland anticipates a further drop in headline inflation to 3.10%.
Cryptocurrency Market:
Digital asset funds saw substantial inflows, and Bitcoin held in exchange wallets increased at a pace of $1.16B per month. Spot Bitcoin ETF approvals are expected by January 10th, 2024, potentially attracting significant retail investment.
Bitcoin Halving and Price Predictions:
The upcoming Bitcoin halving in mid-April 2024 is considered a positive catalyst. Pre-halving BTC price targets range between $39,000 and $50,000, with historical trends indicating a rally before halving events.
Altcoin Market:
Altcoin market capitalization tends to increase more than Bitcoin’s price during rallies, as observed in the 2nd wave when Bitcoin went from $30k to $50k.
Market Sentiment:
The Digital Asset market sentiment reached 74.00, indicating greed. Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap decreased by over 2% to around $1.39 trillion. Ethereum’s dominance hovers around 17%, while Bitcoin’s dominance is slightly above 50%.
Upcoming Events to Watch For:
- FED Monetary Policy Meeting: December 12 – 13th, 2023.
- ECB Monetary Policy Meeting: December 14th, 2023.
- Eurozone headline and core CPI figures for November 2023: November 30th, 2023, at 11:00 AM CET.
- US headline and core CPI figures for November 2023: December 12th, 2023, at 08:30 AM ET.
The week highlighted the dynamic nature of cryptocurrency markets, with a focus on regulatory developments and macroeconomic indicators. The anticipation of spot Bitcoin ETF approvals and the upcoming Bitcoin halving add further layers to the evolving market landscape. Investors are advised to closely monitor these factors for informed decision-making.
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