Bounce or Trap? Reading the Recovery Signals
altFINS Market Update
Daily Crypto Trading Intelligence · Tuesday, February 17, 2026 · Powered by altfins.com
The broad crypto market remains in a medium-term downtrend, but a cluster of oversold bounces and MACD crossovers are forming. Here is where the setups are — and where the traps lie.
01 — MARKET SNAPSHOT
Major Asset Overview
Live data from altfins.com screener. All five major assets remain below their SMA50 and SMA200.
| Asset | Price | 7d Change | RSI-14 | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | $67,376 | −3.93% | 34.2 | Oversold |
| ETH | $1,970 | −6.41% | 33.9 | Strong Down |
| SOL | $84.31 | −2.82% | 35.0 | Oversold |
| XRP | $1.444 | +0.48% | 40.3 | Neutral |
| BNB | $617.79 | −2.91% | 30.2 | RSI Cross ⚡ |
02 — MARKET REGIME
Strong Downtrend with Oversold Bounce Potential
BEARISH REGIME Major Caps
BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, and XRP are all locked in a medium-term Strong Down trend. All five trade well below their SMA50 and SMA200. BTC sits 19% below its 50-day MA ($83,526) and 33% below its 200-day ($100,110). ETH is down 28% from its SMA50. These are not minor pullbacks — this is a full correction phase.
WATCH Oversold Cluster Forming
RSI-14 readings for BTC (34.2), ETH (33.9), SOL (35.0), and BNB (30.2) are all at or near oversold territory. BNB has already crossed back above RSI 30 — historically a short-term buy signal. This cluster suggests short-term relief is possible, but should not be mistaken for a trend reversal.
Key context: Momentum has inflected bullish via MACD crossovers on several assets, but short-term recoveries are happening against a backdrop where virtually every major asset remains in a strong medium-term downtrend. Trade tactically — do not confuse a bounce with a bull market.
03 — ACTIVE TRADE SETUPS
Curated Signals from altfins Analysts
▲ BULLISH SETUPS
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) — Inverse H&S Breakout BULLISH $557.82 +4.78% 7d
- Broke out of Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern above $550 resistance
- Confirmed breakout above the 200-day Moving Average — strongest large-cap setup right now
- Short-term trend has flipped to Up
- Price target: $625 | Stop loss: $524
Hyperliquid (HYPE) — Approaching Support BULLISH $29.56 −5.55% 7d
- One of very few assets with both short-term AND medium-term uptrends intact
- Pullback toward $30 support is a potential swing entry opportunity
- Strong fundamentals: top revenue-generating blockchain, expanding into prediction markets & RWA contracts
- Target: $40 | Stop loss: $27
Cosmos (ATOM) — Channel Down Breakout BULLISH $2.28 +16.42% 7d
- Bullish breakout from Channel Down with short-term trend flipping to Up
- Swing entry on pullback to $1.85 support (held in recent weeks)
- Targets: $2.50 then $3.00 | Stop loss: $1.65
Uniswap (UNI) — Catalyst + Resistance Breakout BULLISH
- BlackRock DeFi integration announcement as fundamental catalyst
- New fee-switch token buyback proposal approved
- Broke above resistance. Target: $4.00 | Nearest support: $3.00
◈ OVERSOLD BOUNCE / NEUTRAL SETUPS
Bitcoin (BTC) — Approaching Resistance BOUNCE $67,376
- Extreme oversold bounce from $60K after RSI dropped below 20
- MACD inflected bullish — analysts expect consolidation $60K–$74K for several weeks
- Resistance at $70K, then $74K. Do NOT chase — wait for confirmed breakout
AAVE — Approaching Resistance BOUNCE ~$120+
- Bounced from oversold RSI <30 in $90–100 support zone, MACD crossover confirmed
- Could revisit $130–150 resistance. Top whale-held DeFi token
▼ BEARISH / HIGH CAUTION
Shiba Inu (SHIB) — Channel Down BEARISH
- Approaching $0.0000070 resistance in Channel Down — likely rejection zone
- All three trend timeframes are Down. Only suitable for short trades at resistance
Bitget Token (BGB) — Support Breakdown BEARISH
- Broke below $3.35, then $3.00, then $2.50 — cascading support failures
- RSI dropped below 20 (extremely oversold). Possible dead-cat bounce toward $3.00. Avoid new positions
04 — STRATEGY PLAYBOOK
What’s Working in This Market
| Strategy | Signal Type | Fitness | Best Assets Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oversold RSI Bounce Buy RSI cross above 30, sell at resistance | RSI Cross | HIGH ✓ | BNB, BTC, SOL, ADA, AAVE |
| Inverse H&S Breakout Classic reversal with defined PT & SL | Chart Pattern | HIGH ✓ | BCH (active now) |
| Channel Down Fade Short Short at upper channel trendline | Trend Follow | HIGH ✓ | SHIB, NEAR, SEI, BONK, ENA |
| Resistance Breakout Long Enter on confirmed break above key level | Pattern Break | MODERATE | SUI, CRO, BCH, UNI |
| MACD Crossover Momentum Long when MACD crosses above signal line | MACD Signal | MODERATE | ATOM, INJ, XTZ, CRO |
| Trend Following Longs Only buy with short + medium uptrend aligned | Trend Signal | LOW | HYPE, PAXG only |
05 — SIGNAL DASHBOARD
Key Indicators at a Glance
Short-Term Trend Leaders
- BCH — Up (8/10) ↑ RSI 51.8
- HYPE — Up (7/10) ↑ Short & Medium both Up
- ATOM — Up (7/10) ↑ RSI 59.0
- PAXG — Strong Up (8/10)
- ETH — Strong Down (0/10)
- BNB — Strong Down (0/10)
Top Weekly Gainers
- PIPPIN +98.87%
- STABLE +26.20%
- ASTER +16.88%
- ATOM +16.42%
- ZBU +16.10%
- BCH +4.78%
Pattern Breakouts
- BCH — Inv. H&S ✓
- ATOM — Ch. Down Break ✓
- SUI — Resistance Break ✓
- CRO — Resistance Break ✓
- HYPE — Ch. Down Break ✓
- BGB — Support Breakdown ↓
06 — altFINS’ TAKEAWAY
Three Things to Act On This Week
1. TRADE — BCH Inverse H&S (Best Active Setup)
This is the cleanest high-probability setup in the current data. Confirmed breakout above $550 and the 200-day MA with a defined target ($625) and stop ($524). Risk/reward is favorable, short-term trend has confirmed the reversal. Size position accordingly and respect the stop.
2. MONITOR — HYPE Pullback to $30 Support
One of very few assets maintaining both short and medium-term uptrends. The current pullback is healthy. A hold or bounce at $30 with a bullish confirmation candle would be a textbook swing entry. Strong fundamental differentiation — real revenue, prediction markets expansion.
3. PREPARE — BNB RSI 30 Crossover Signal
BNB is showing the most significant RSI-30 crossover among large-caps. Resistance at $700–$750. This is a bounce trade, not a position trade — set your exit target before you enter.
Bottom line: The market is oversold but not yet reversing. The winning playbook is tactical, not strategic — take short-term bounce setups with defined stops, fade channel resistance in confirmed downtrends, and wait for medium-term trends to turn before adding longer-horizon exposure. Patience is a position.
altFINS Market Update· altfins.com · Data: February 17, 2026
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Crypto trading involves substantial risk. Always do your own research.
Written byLenka Fetyko
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